ACTIVE RESEARCH — IN DEVELOPMENT

Card Valuation Matrix

A multi-dimensional evaluation framework for trading card game cards. CVM addresses limitations in single-scalar valuation approaches, introducing formal handling of competitive performance, market dynamics, and related value signals as separable dimensions, currently being demonstrated on Disney Lorcana TCG.

Overview

The Card Valuation Matrix evaluates cards across multiple value dimensions simultaneously — combining competitive performance, market dynamics, and gameplay characteristics into a single framework. Existing approaches typically optimize one axis (raw competitive utility, or market price prediction); CVM treats card value as inherently multi-dimensional and produces unified rankings that account for the systematic divergence between these axes.

The framework is being developed and validated using Disney Lorcana TCG as the primary demonstration domain — chosen for its dual-market structure where competitive utility and Disney IP collector value diverge measurably. The framework is architected for portability across TCG domains beyond Lorcana, with cross-TCG considerations addressed in the methodology design.

Foundation

CVM builds on prior research conducted in CIS 635 (Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining) at Grand Valley State University. That work — What Wins vs. What Sells: Knowledge Discovery in Disney Lorcana's Competitive and Collector Markets — established a dual-axis SHAP analysis on a TCG, simultaneously modeling competitive performance and market price, and introduced the Sleeper Card Index that captured the divergence between these axes. CVM formalizes and significantly extends this work into a more rigorous framework.

Status

CVM is in active development. Current work focuses on extending the methodology beyond the initial single-scalar valuation approach into a more rigorous framework with proper statistical treatment, refining feature design for dual-market evaluation, and validating against expanded tournament data and price observations through 2026. The research is being prepared for submission to a peer-reviewed academic venue.

Technical Depth

A detailed technical page covering methodology, derivations, and current results is being prepared and will be available to faculty, researchers, and collaborators evaluating the methodology upon request.

Last updated: May 2026